Are you watching home prices and wondering what they actually mean for your sale? In San Francisco, median price alone rarely tells the full story. The early signals that move first, like inventory and the pending-to-active ratio, can help you decide whether to list traditionally for top dollar or choose a faster as-is cash sale for certainty. In this guide, you will learn which indicators matter most, how to read them, and a simple framework to choose the right path. Let’s dive in.
Key signals to watch in San Francisco
Months of inventory (MOI)
Months of inventory measures how many months it would take to sell all active listings at the current sales pace. It is a direct read on market balance. Less than 2 months usually signals a strong seller’s market. Between 2 and 4 months is more balanced. Over 4 months gives buyers the edge.
Why it matters: When MOI is low, homes sell faster and you have more leverage on price and terms. When MOI rises, buyers gain time and negotiating power. Always filter MOI by your neighborhood and property type, since San Francisco single-family homes and condos can move very differently.
Pending-to-active (P/A) ratio
The P/A ratio compares how many properties are under contract to how many are active right now. A ratio above 1 points to seller advantage, while below 0.5 points to buyer advantage.
Why it matters: P/A changes quickly and can signal a shift weeks before prices do. Watch it week to week. If your neighborhood P/A is above 1 and rising, that supports a traditional listing. If it falls toward 0.5 or lower, consider a faster as-is sale.
New listings, price reductions, and cancellations
Rising new listings increase competition for attention. A growing share of price reductions is an early sign of softening demand. When cancellations and withdrawals tick up, it can foreshadow higher inventory and more pressure on pricing.
Why it matters: These signals help you judge whether you need to price more conservatively or switch to an as-is option to avoid a long time on market.
Days on market (DOM)
Days on market tells you how fast the typical home goes under contract. Falling DOM points to stronger demand. Rising DOM points to a cooling market.
Why it matters: Compare your neighborhood DOM to the city average and to your property type. A rising DOM trend suggests you may need sharper pricing or a faster sale path.
Sale-to-list price ratio (SLP)
SLP measures how the final sale price compares to the asking price. Above 100 percent suggests multiple offers. Around 98 to 100 percent is neutral. Below 98 percent indicates buyers are gaining leverage.
Why it matters: When SLP is near or above 100 percent in your micro-market, a well-prepared traditional listing can maximize proceeds. If SLP trends lower, buyers may expect discounts, which can increase time on market.
Median price and price trend
Median price is helpful, but it is a lagging indicator. It confirms what other signals already showed. Use it to validate the direction suggested by MOI, P/A, price reductions, and DOM.
Mortgage rates and buyer mix
Mortgage rates shape affordability, while the share of all-cash buyers can speed up timelines and reduce risk for as-is properties. San Francisco’s buyer mix can shift with broader hiring trends, IPO activity, and lending conditions.
Why it matters: A higher cash-buyer share can improve certainty for sellers of homes that are hard to finance, such as heavy fixers or unique ownership structures.
Seasonality and micro-markets
What seasonality looks like in SF
Demand usually rises in spring, often peaking in late spring or early summer. The late summer and early fall can be quieter. Winter is typically the softest stretch. In the city, seasonality exists but can be muted compared with suburban areas.
Practical takeaway: If you can choose your window, late winter into spring often helps. If you are close to the seasonal low, expect fewer showings and more selective buyers.
Neighborhood and property type differences
San Francisco is a market of micro-markets. Single-family homes in central and inner neighborhoods often show strong demand and more price resilience. Downtown and SOMA condos typically carry more inventory and longer DOM, and they can be more sensitive to job trends and office usage. Outer neighborhoods can show steadier pricing and slower cycles. TICs, co-ops, and unique properties often have a smaller buyer pool and longer marketing times.
Practical takeaway: Always look at data for your neighborhood and product type. Citywide averages can mask the conditions that matter for your sale.
A simple decision framework: list or sell as-is for cash
When a traditional listing wins
Choose a traditional listing when your local indicators show seller strength and you have time to prepare the home.
- MOI is under about 2 months for your product type.
- P/A ratio is above 1 and trending higher.
- DOM is falling and SLP is near or above 100 percent.
- There are fewer price reductions and buyers are active.
- You have time and budget for light prep, such as paint, landscaping, or staging.
When an as-is cash sale makes sense
Choose a fast as-is sale when your signals point to a softer market or your property and situation require speed and certainty.
- MOI is above about 4 months and rising in your micro-market.
- P/A ratio is below about 0.5, and price reductions or cancellations are increasing.
- DOM is lengthening and SLP is below expectations.
- The property needs repairs, has title or permit issues, or is harder to finance.
- You face a time-sensitive move, probate, divorce, or high carrying costs.
- Local buyer activity includes a meaningful share of cash purchases.
Quick rules of thumb
Use neighborhood and product type data instead of citywide averages.
- MOI under 2 and SLP at or above 99 percent often favors a traditional listing.
- MOI over 4 and SLP under 97 percent often favors a quicker as-is sale.
- Two or more months of rising MOI is more meaningful than a single spike.
Know your net and timeline costs
Estimate your breakeven. Compare the expected price lift from repairs and staging to the cost and time to complete them, plus mortgage, taxes, HOA, and utilities. Consider negotiation tools such as pre-inspections, realistic pricing for expected DOM, and offering credits instead of doing repairs.
Build your seller dashboard
Weekly checks
- New listings in your neighborhood compared with the same week last year
- Pending-to-active ratio for your property type
- Share of listings with price reductions
- Mortgage rate trend and relevant local employment headlines
Monthly checks
- Months of inventory for your neighborhood and product type
- Median days on market and median days to contract
- Sale-to-list price ratio trends
- Median sale price to confirm trend direction
Quarterly checks
- Permit and new construction activity in your area
- Changes in buyer composition, including all-cash share
What to do next
- Pull a neighborhood-specific dashboard with MOI, P/A, DOM, SLP, and new listing flow.
- If timing matters, get 2 to 3 cash quotes for an as-is sale and compare net proceeds and time certainty to a traditional listing.
- If you are leaning toward a traditional listing, get clear on repair timelines and carrying costs, and confirm demand with current P/A and DOM.
- Talk with a local, MLS-connected professional to interpret live pending and active trends for your block and property type.
If speed and certainty are your priority, you can request a fast, as-is cash offer with no repairs or fees and a closing date that fits your timeline. Our team provides a 24-hour offer window and a simple process that respects your time and goals.
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FAQs
What is months of inventory and how should a San Francisco seller use it?
- Months of inventory shows how many months it would take to sell current listings at today’s sales pace. Under 2 months often favors sellers; over 4 months often favors buyers. Use your neighborhood and property type MOI to guide pricing and timing.
What does the pending-to-active ratio tell me about my San Francisco sale?
- The P/A ratio compares properties in contract to active listings. Above 1 suggests seller advantage; below 0.5 suggests buyer advantage. Track it weekly for early trend shifts.
How do condos and single-family homes differ in San Francisco market signals?
- Single-family homes often move faster with tighter inventory. Condos, especially downtown, can carry more inventory and longer DOM. Always compare signals by product type before choosing a strategy.
When should I consider an as-is cash sale in San Francisco?
- Consider it when MOI is high and rising, P/A is weak, SLP is below expectations, or your home needs repairs or has financing hurdles. It also fits if you need speed or want to reduce uncertainty.
How do mortgage rates affect my sale timeline and pricing?
- Higher rates can slow demand and increase DOM. Lower rates can pull buyers back in and support stronger SLP. Watch weekly rate trends alongside your neighborhood P/A and MOI.
How often should I check market signals before listing in San Francisco?
- Review leading indicators such as P/A, new listings, and price reductions weekly. Review MOI, DOM, SLP, and median price monthly. Reassess quarterly for changes in permits and buyer mix.
